Mayor Olivia Chow would narrowly defeat former mayor John Tory if Toronto’s municipal election were held today, according to a new public opinion survey by Liaison Strategies.
The poll, released Tuesday, shows Chow at 39 per cent support among decided voters, compared with 35 per cent for Tory. Both figures represent slight declines since Liaison’s previous survey in October — down three points for Chow and one point for Tory.
Chow has not yet said whether she will seek re-election in the Oct. 26, 2026 vote, while Tory is publicly weighing a return to politics after resigning in early 2023.
The survey questioned 1,000 Torontonians between Dec. 19 and Dec. 21 about who they would vote for if an election were held today.
So far, the only candidate who has officially entered the race is Beaches–East York Coun. Brad Bradford. In the new poll, Bradford drew 16 per cent support among decided voters — his strongest showing yet in Liaison’s tracking and a four-point increase since October.
When undecided voters are included, Chow still leads with 37 per cent support, followed by Tory at 33 per cent and Bradford at 15 per cent.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said Bradford’s rise reflects the fact that he is currently the only declared candidate and has been generating media attention.
“For the past several months, he’s been putting out campaign-style announcements,” Valentin said, pointing to proposals such as refunding TTC riders for service delays. “Whether people agree or disagree, it gets attention.”
Valentin added that Bradford’s early start is helping boost name recognition — a challenge he has faced in the past.
“One of the biggest impediments for him has always been his name recognition,” Valentin said, noting that declaring more than a year before election day gives him a head start. Still, he cautioned that 16 per cent would not be enough to defeat either Chow or Tory.
In the 2023 mayoral byelection, triggered by Tory’s resignation, Bradford captured just over one per cent of the vote.
Valentin said Bradford’s announcements are also prompting voters to start thinking about the race.
“It’s a minority of people who have had that conversation so far,” he said. “But it gets people asking, ‘Who do I support?’”
Chow’s recent messaging may also signal an impending re-election bid. After overseeing two years of significant property tax increases — which she said were needed to restore city services — the mayor has recently emphasized cost savings as she heads into her final budget season.
Transit is expected to be a major campaign issue. Chow has said she plans to freeze TTC fares again and introduce fare capping.
Meanwhile, Valentin said Tory’s name recognition is not as strong as it once was, particularly among newer residents, immigrants and younger voters who may not remember his time as mayor.
Tory has recently begun filling in more frequently as a radio host on Newstalk 1010, beyond his previous weekly segment. While Bell Media has not disclosed how often he will appear, Valentin said the increased presence could be seen as a way to raise his profile ahead of a potential campaign, though he noted Tory’s long history in broadcasting.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points, accurate 19 times out of 20.