Negotiations between Canada and the United States over a sweeping new economic and security agreement have intensified in recent weeks, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions. However, final approval still rests with U.S. President Donald Trump, and no clear timeline has emerged for when — or if — a deal will be finalized.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, several sources confirmed to CTV News that a framework document has been exchanged between the two countries, indicating serious movement in the negotiations. Still, officials universally cautioned that Trump’s unpredictable nature and recent political distractions — including protests in Los Angeles and his ongoing feud with tech magnate Elon Musk — have cast uncertainty over the timing and outcome of the talks.
A senior Canadian government source confirmed that documents have been moving back and forth between Ottawa and Washington, describing it as “part of a normal negotiation.” The source declined to share the contents of the documents, reiterating that the federal government “will not negotiate in public.”
The discussions come amid an ongoing trade conflict sparked in February when Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, escalating tensions between the two longtime allies. Prime Minister Mark Carney has responded by declaring that the traditional Canada–U.S. relationship is “over,” but insists a new model—focused on economic and security cooperation—remains possible.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne called the talks “a very dynamic situation” when speaking with reporters Wednesday morning, adding that the entire cabinet is united in defending Canadian industries. “We’re fighting for Canada, we’re fighting for industry,” he said.
Industry Minister Mélanie Joly previously confirmed that Carney and Trump have spoken directly multiple times in recent weeks, although details of those calls have not been released publicly.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra appeared cautiously optimistic during a fireside chat at the Canadian Club of Ottawa on Wednesday, saying “all the indications are that we could move to a very positive agreement.” Still, he warned that the outcome remains uncertain: “Until a deal is announced, you really won’t know what’s in it, and you won’t know that it’s finalized.”
Hoekstra noted the unprecedented pace of talks since Carney’s visit to Washington last month, saying both leaders seem “in a hurry to get things done.”
But not all observers are convinced a deal is near. Former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton told CTV’s Power Play that despite growing speculation, it’s “premature to break out the champagne.” Bolton warned that Trump is more interested in making headlines than ensuring structural solutions. “What Trump wants more than anything else is to be able to announce that he’s got a deal that solves the problem. Now, whether it does or not is anybody’s guess.”
Adding another layer to the negotiations, Carney announced earlier this week that Canada will finally meet its NATO commitment of spending 2% of GDP on defence. Though overdue by more than a decade, Carney’s pledge is five years ahead of the timeline he committed to during the federal election. Bolton acknowledged the significance of the move, suggesting it could be a component of a broader agreement. “If that’s part of the deal, I could see that coming,” he said.
For now, Canadians and Americans alike are left waiting to see whether months of quiet diplomacy will yield a breakthrough—or another round of uncertainty in a relationship already strained by tariffs, politics, and changing global dynamics.