OTTAWA — Canada Post’s financial struggles show no sign of easing, with the postal service reporting a $407-million loss in the second quarter of 2025, yet analysts say the Crown corporation is unlikely to fold.
The latest results mark the eighth consecutive year of red ink, with 2025 projected to be its worst year yet. More than half of Canada Post’s year-to-date losses were booked in June alone, largely due to falling parcel volumes as customers shift to other carriers amid prolonged labour unrest.
Labour dispute weighs heavily
Ongoing contract negotiations with the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) have created what analyst Marvin Ryder called “operational uncertainty.” CUPW launched a strike in November 2024 before being legislated back to work a month later, and although walkouts have paused, the union has imposed an overtime ban. The two sides postponed their most recent bargaining sessions on Aug. 22 and 25.
Pressure to modernize
Beyond labour disputes, Ryder said Canada Post must urgently address its operations:
- Replacing some door-to-door delivery with community mailboxes.
- Closing smaller post offices in favour of kiosks.
- Improving efficiency to stem customer defections to private couriers.
Still, Ryder sees reasons for optimism: Canada Post’s universal service mandate requires it to deliver mail to every address in the country — including rural and remote communities many private carriers won’t serve. Small businesses also remain loyal due to competitive pricing.
“If we could get stability back, if we could get operational efficiency back, I think it’s possible to win back some of those customers, but we’ve got to make a lot happen in a short period of time,” Ryder told CTV.
Too big to fail?
Even if reforms stall, Ryder stressed it is unlikely Canada Post will collapse. “The government would likely step in,” he said, given the corporation’s central role in the economy and its obligation to serve all Canadians.