OTTAWA — Canada’s job market delivered another major surprise in October, adding 67,000 new positions and pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.9%, according to Statistics Canada.
The surge — driven mainly by part-time and private sector jobs — marks the second consecutive month of unexpected labour strength, far outpacing economists’ predictions of a modest 2,500 job loss.
Economists had expected hiring to cool following September’s 60,000-job gain, but October’s results indicate the economy remains more resilient than anticipated despite ongoing trade tensions and a sluggish global outlook.
“The labour market is proving a bit more resilient to trade tensions than we had expected, but October’s data is not a home run,” said Leslie Preston, senior economist at TD Bank, who likened the performance to “a double” in baseball terms.
Where the Jobs Were Created
- Wholesale and retail trade led the way with 41,000 new jobs.
- Transportation and warehousing added 30,000 positions.
- Information, culture and recreation saw 25,000 new roles.
- Manufacturing, despite tariff headwinds, grew by 8,700 jobs, while construction shed 15,000.
Overall, goods-producing industries have lost 54,000 jobs since January, offset by a 142,000-job gain in service sectors.
Ontario Leads the Pack
Ontario accounted for the bulk of October’s growth with 55,000 new jobs, signalling recovery in regions hardest hit by earlier trade disruptions.
In Windsor, a manufacturing hub, the unemployment rate has fallen from 11.2% in June to 9.6%, based on three-month averages.
Youth Employment Bounces Back
After months of struggle, young Canadians (aged 15–24) saw their first net job gain since January, with 21,000 new positions, lowering youth unemployment to 14.1%, down from a 15-year high in September.
Wages Rising, But Hiring Still Soft
Average hourly wages grew 3.5% year-over-year, a slight acceleration from September’s 3.3%. However, analysts caution that the labour market, while steady, remains “soft” compared to pre-pandemic strength.
“This report shows some resilience in Canada’s labour market — but it is not strength,” Preston added.
Impact on the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada, which has kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% after two consecutive cuts, will closely analyze these figures ahead of its December 10 rate decision.
Governor Tiff Macklem has signalled the bank may pause further cuts unless the economy weakens unexpectedly.
“Overall, today’s data supports the view that rates are low enough to stimulate the economy,” said CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham. “We continue to forecast no more rate cuts from here.”
With two months of solid job gains, economists say Canada’s labour market is stabilizing — offering cautious optimism amid global uncertainty.