Governor Tiff Macklem says the Bank of Canada will take a cautious and “humble” approach as it resumes issuing formal economic forecasts later this month, after pausing them earlier this year due to mounting trade uncertainty.
Speaking from Washington, D.C., where he is attending the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings, Macklem said the central bank will release its updated economic projections on October 29, alongside its next interest rate decision. The Bank had suspended forecasts as U.S. tariff measures clouded the economic outlook, but Macklem noted that some of that uncertainty has eased since spring — even though global trade risks remain.
“The Bank of Canada will have to be humble in its return to forecasting,” Macklem told reporters, emphasizing that the new projections will weigh risks more heavily than usual.
He added that businesses surveyed by the Bank continue to cite trade tensions as a factor holding back investment and hiring. At the same time, Canada’s artificial intelligence boom has acted as a “countervailing force,” driving investment in spite of global economic headwinds.
The upcoming forecast will be closely watched by markets as the Bank navigates a complex mix of easing trade tensions, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and rapid technological change shaping Canada’s economic trajectory.