A new third-party analysis by Altus Group, commissioned by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA), reveals dire consequences for the Greater Toronto Area’s housing market if governments fail to act on broad-based GST/HST relief for new homes.
According to the report, by 2027, housing starts in the GTA could plunge by more than 60% from 2024 levels, threatening over 41,000 jobs and putting more than $10 billion in residential construction investment at risk. The sector’s supply pipeline is facing a critical slowdown — and without urgent government intervention, experts warn, the region’s broader economy could feel the shockwaves.
“The livelihood of tens of thousands of workers and billions in investment are on the line,” said Dave Wilkes, President and CEO of BILD. “We now have concrete economic analysis showing that governments have a chance to act before this crisis deepens. New homebuyers deserve equitable tax treatment, and this one measure could make a real difference.”
The Altus Group paper highlights that the current federal approach to GST/HST rebates is too narrow and outdated. Broader relief — extending exemptions to all owner-occupied new housing — could help offset high costs and reignite demand, according to additional research by the Missing Middle Initiative. Their analysis estimates the national cost at $2 billion, with $900 million in Ontario — a modest figure, they argue, compared to what’s at stake.
“This is about more than affordability — it’s about protecting jobs, stabilizing housing supply, and ensuring economic resilience,” said Scott Andison, CEO of OHBA. “For under a billion dollars, governments can safeguard 23,000 annual housing starts and keep over 41,000 construction workers employed in the GTA alone. If this were any other industry, we wouldn’t be hesitating.”
The report stresses that housing isn’t a just-in-time product; the long pipeline means policy decisions today will shape the market’s health years from now. Delays in responding to leading indicators could result in a deepening supply crisis and exacerbate affordability challenges.
With over 1,000 BILD member companies and 4,000 OHBA members province-wide, both associations are urging the federal and provincial governments to act now — before the warning signs become irreversible losses.
For more information and access to the full Altus Group analysis, visit: bildgta.ca.