Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on Canada, long threatened and now enacted, could not have been more damaging. At 25% on all goods except energy—which faces a 10% levy—these measures will send shockwaves through Canada’s economy. For decades, continental free trade has tightly woven the economies of both nations together. Now, with a single stroke, the U.S. has placed that relationship in jeopardy.
In Canada, political divisions have momentarily vanished, replaced by a rare sense of national unity. Even leaders who have spent their careers critiquing their own country are standing firmly in its defense. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in an impassioned press conference, evoked the historic sacrifices Canadians have made alongside Americans in battle, striking a tone of solidarity—but one that many might argue came a decade too late. Public sentiment has turned sharply against the U.S.; the American national anthem was met with jeers in Ottawa, and provincial governments have begun removing American alcohol from their store shelves in protest.
Where Canada goes from here remains uncertain. Trudeau has announced retaliatory tariffs, despite Trump’s warning that any counteraction will result in even harsher measures. This response was necessary—not just as an economic safeguard, but as a declaration that Canada will not passively accept economic bullying. However, the stark reality remains: while trade wars harm both sides, America has a much larger economy and can absorb the damage far better than Canada. A tit-for-tat escalation is not a fight Canada is poised to win.
Symbolic retaliatory measures, like tariffs on Florida orange juice, might satisfy domestic frustration, but they are unlikely to make Washington reconsider. More impactful actions—such as restricting Canadian electricity and oil exports to the U.S.—are currently seen as too extreme. Yet without a meaningful countermeasure, Canada risks being steamrolled in this economic showdown.
The justification for these tariffs—claims of cross-border fentanyl trade and illegal immigration—rings hollow. The amount of fentanyl entering the U.S. from Canada is minuscule compared to what comes through Mexico. Meanwhile, under the Biden administration, over 100,000 asylum seekers crossed from the U.S. into Canada at a single border point—if anything, it is Canada that has a stronger case for border grievances.
Trump’s real objective appears to be dismantling North American free trade by forcing manufacturing back into the U.S. Ironically, the very trade deal he signed in 2020 is now being trampled underfoot by his own policies. The implication is clear: these tariffs may not be a temporary bargaining chip, but a long-term strategy.
If Canada were to mount a strategic response, it would help if Ottawa had a government with the strength and legitimacy to do so. Trudeau, still in office in name, lacks the authority or political capital to lead an effective counteroffensive. Meanwhile, Mark Carney, though officially a private citizen, seems to be moving as if he were already in power, jetting across the country and positioning himself for what comes next. The Conservative opposition, likely to win the next election, remains sidelined, waiting for Trudeau to call the vote.
Last year, Canada mourned the passing of former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, the architect of free trade between the two nations. For years, the question of continental economic integration seemed settled. Now, in a single move, Trump has reopened that debate with dramatic force.
Even if the U.S. were to reverse course—which appears increasingly unlikely—Canada will never again assume that its southern neighbor is a reliable economic partner. The long-standing assumption of American goodwill has been shattered. What remains to be seen is whether Canada can chart a new course in a world where the U.S. is no longer a guaranteed ally, but a potential economic adversary.