Key Swing States and Voter Turnout Hold the Balance as Harris and Trump Vie for White House in High-Stakes Election
Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump in the latest national polls, indicating a close race that remains highly unpredictable with just one week left until Election Day. Despite holding slim leads in most surveys, Harris’ advantage has diminished in recent weeks, suggesting a deadlocked contest and tight races in key battleground states.
Latest Poll Results
A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday shows Harris leading Trump by a razor-thin 44% to 43% margin, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. Meanwhile, a Morning Consult poll released the same day has Harris up three points at 50% to 47%, though her lead has narrowed from previous surveys where she led by four points.
An ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday put Harris ahead 51% to 47%, showing a slight increase in her lead compared to early October. However, a CBS/YouGov survey conducted the same day paints an even closer picture, with Harris leading Trump 50% to 49%.
Polls from Emerson College and the New York Times/Siena underscore the tight race, showing both candidates tied at 49% and 48% respectively. Several other surveys have found similar results, with Harris and Trump deadlocked or separated by a single percentage point in favor of either candidate.
Swing States in Focus
The race is even more volatile in seven key swing states, where polls reveal razor-thin margins. According to the Silver Bulletin forecast, Harris maintains a lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in Nevada. With margins of less than one percentage point in most of these states, the race remains too close to call.
Changing Dynamics and Voter Enthusiasm
Harris’ candidacy, which was formalized after President Joe Biden dropped out in July, initially led to a surge in her poll numbers. However, her lead peaked at 3.7 points in late August and has since narrowed. Notably, a recent Monmouth University poll indicated that Democratic voter enthusiasm has nearly doubled since June, from 46% to 85%, while Republican enthusiasm remains steady at 71%.
Polls Show Tight Race Among Demographics
Despite her lead among Latinos, an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll conducted in late September found that Harris’ advantage in this demographic is smaller compared to previous Democratic candidates, showing her with 54% support to Trump’s 40%.
The upcoming election hinges on key swing states, voter turnout, and enthusiasm among core voter groups. As the race tightens, both Harris and Trump are making final campaign pushes in critical battlegrounds, with high stakes for both sides. With only one week left, the battle for the White House remains a virtual toss-up, leaving observers and voters on edge as Election Day approaches.
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