With U.S. voters set to elect their next president on November 5, the race is heating up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Initially poised to be a rematch of the 2020 election, the landscape shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, endorsing Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Now, the question is whether America will elect its first female president or return Trump to the White House for a second term.
Who’s Leading the National Polls?
According to recent national polling averages, Kamala Harris is maintaining a slight lead over Donald Trump. This shift in momentum followed Biden’s exit from the race, as Harris quickly gained ground on Trump. Polls showed a tightening race when Harris officially hit the campaign trail, and her lead has gradually increased since.
A pivotal moment came during the televised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which was watched by over 67 million people. Snap polls following the debate indicated that most viewers felt Harris performed better, giving her campaign a small but notable boost. Since the debate, Harris’ lead has grown from 2.5 to 2.9 percentage points, largely due to a slight dip in Trump’s polling numbers.
However, national polls only provide part of the picture. Due to the U.S. electoral college system, battleground states are where the election will be won or lost.
What’s Happening in the Battleground States?
The real contest lies in the key battleground states, where polls suggest a neck-and-neck race. These states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will be critical in determining the next president. In 2016, Trump flipped these historically Democratic states to win the presidency, but Biden regained them in 2020. Now, Harris must repeat Biden’s success to secure victory.
Recent polls show only one or two percentage points separating Harris and Trump in several battleground states, making it difficult to predict who is ahead. Pennsylvania, with the largest share of electoral votes, is particularly crucial. Harris needs to hold onto it, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, to be on course for victory.
When Biden withdrew from the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points in the battleground states. Since then, Harris has narrowed the gap, giving Democrats renewed hope in these decisive areas.
How Reliable Are the Polls?
While polls offer a snapshot of the race, they have historically underestimated support for Trump, as seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Pollsters have since adjusted their methods, but predicting voter turnout remains a challenge. With Harris and Trump so close in the battleground states, the election outcome is still too close to call.
Both candidates will continue to campaign heavily in the coming weeks as the race tightens and voters prepare to make their choice on November 5.