Housing prices in some Ontario cities could rise by as much as five per cent this fall due to low housing supply, according to the 2024 Fall Housing Market Outlook report by Re/Max. Despite recent Bank of Canada interest rate cuts, home prices remain high, especially in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), with Brampton and Mississauga among the cities expected to see price increases.
The report indicates that while decreasing mortgage rates have encouraged some buyers to re-enter the market, the housing supply remains tight, which could drive prices higher once further interest rate cuts prompt more competition.
“The fall market is usually an early indicator for activity in 2025, and we’re headed toward healthier territory. With interest rates starting to ease, buyers are beginning to come off the sidelines,” said Christopher Alexander, president of Re/Max Canada.
Home prices in the GTA are expected to increase up to five per cent, with Mississauga’s average home price projected to rise to $1,124,490, and Brampton’s to $1,063,712 by the end of the year. York Region homes are expected to increase by three per cent, and Niagara Region by two per cent. In Durham Region, prices could increase by one per cent to an average of $943,340.
However, some areas such as Toronto, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton, and Burlington are expected to see price decreases. The report projects Hamilton’s average home price to drop to $785,308, while Burlington’s could fall to $1,097,912 by year-end.
The upcoming Bank of Canada interest rate announcement on September 4 could influence market trends further. First-time homebuyers are showing increased confidence, with a quarter of Canadians actively saving for a home. However, 14 per cent of homeowners facing mortgage renewals may be forced to sell their homes due to high rates.
Affordability remains a concern for many Canadians, with 28 per cent considering moving to another country due to rising housing costs, and 25 per cent rethinking plans to start families.
“Although consumer confidence is returning, Canadians continue to grapple with housing affordability issues caused by low supply. While borrowing is becoming less expensive, this won’t solve affordability in the long term,” Alexander added.
The report is based on a Leger online survey of 1,530 Canadians conducted between August 9 and 11, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.