Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow has strengthened her position in the race for city hall, opening an 11-point lead over her closest challenger, Councillor Brad Bradford, according to a new poll that also shows a sizeable group of voters has yet to make up its mind.
The latest Liaison Strategies survey puts Chow at 49 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 38 per cent for Bradford. Former federal Conservative cabinet minister Chris Alexander stands at 11 per cent, while three per cent support another candidate.
The numbers represent an improvement for Chow since an earlier poll released Aug. 7, when she led Bradford by seven points, 47 per cent to 40 per cent. Alexander had 10 per cent support at that time.
When undecided voters are included, Chow has the support of 39 per cent of all respondents, Bradford stands at 30 per cent and Alexander at nine per cent. Another two per cent favour other candidates, while 19 per cent remain undecided, leaving considerable room for the campaign to shift before election day.
Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin said the race has moved toward a clearer advantage for Chow, although the large undecided vote means the outcome is far from settled.
Alexander is also becoming better known among Toronto voters. The proportion of respondents unfamiliar with him has fallen from 61 per cent in the previous survey to 48 per cent. His favourable rating increased from 14 to 17 per cent, while his unfavourable rating rose from 11 to 19 per cent.
The contest reveals a significant gender divide. Among decided and leaning female voters, Chow leads Bradford by 58 per cent to 29 per cent. Among men, Bradford holds the advantage, leading Chow 47 per cent to 39 per cent.
Geographically, Chow leads in downtown Toronto, North York and Scarborough, while Bradford has a substantial advantage in Etobicoke, where he leads 56 per cent to 34 per cent.
The relationship between Toronto City Hall and Premier Doug Ford’s provincial government is also emerging as an election issue. Forty-eight per cent of respondents said Toronto’s next mayor should strike a balance between working with Queen’s Park and standing up to the province when necessary. Twenty-five per cent favour a more confrontational approach, while 19 per cent prefer greater collaboration.
Chow’s handling of the city’s relationship with the Ford government received approval from 50 per cent of respondents, while 40 per cent disapproved.
Bike lanes could become another major battleground during the campaign. Sixty-five per cent of respondents said a candidate’s position on cycling infrastructure would be important in determining their vote.
Chow has generally supported expanding cycling infrastructure and has indicated she will negotiate with the provincial government over road-safety measures. Bradford has taken a different approach, promising to remove bike lanes on Bloor Street West in Etobicoke and part of the Yonge Street cycling network if elected.
Public opinion on the issue remains closely divided. Thirty-five per cent of respondents want Toronto to build more bike lanes, 34 per cent favour keeping approximately the current number, and 26 per cent would like some existing lanes removed.
The future name of Sankofa Square is another issue entering the campaign. Bradford has promised to rename it Toronto Square, a proposal supported by 56 per cent of respondents. Forty per cent said the issue would be important when deciding how to vote.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents between Aug. 14 and 16 using interactive voice response calls to randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers. Results were weighted using 2021 Census benchmarks and carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
With Chow increasing her lead but nearly one in five voters still undecided, Toronto’s mayoral contest remains fluid. Issues including affordability, transportation, bike lanes and the city’s relationship with Queen’s Park could ultimately determine whether Chow secures another term or one of her challengers succeeds in reshaping the race.