As the 2025 federal election campaign enters its final 10 days, the latest Nanos Research tracking poll reveals a tight national race between the Liberals and Conservatives, with a growing tug-of-war over middle-aged voters that could ultimately decide the outcome.
The Liberals currently hold a five-point lead over the Conservatives, with 44 per cent support nationally compared to 39 per cent for Pierre Poilievre’s party, according to the three-day rolling survey ending April 16. The NDP trails at 9 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6 per cent, the Green Party at 2 per cent, and the People’s Party at 1 per cent.
The polling paints a picture of regional divides and demographic battlegrounds. In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have a narrowing four-point edge at 46 per cent, with the Conservatives close behind at 42 per cent. The NDP has ticked upward to 9 per cent. In British Columbia, the Liberals have regained the lead at 43 per cent, up from last week, while the Conservatives sit at 37 per cent.
The Liberals continue to dominate in Atlantic Canada, where they hold 61 per cent of voter support versus 29 per cent for the Conservatives. In Quebec, the Liberals remain on top with 47 per cent, while the Bloc sits at 25 per cent and the Conservatives trail at 21 per cent. Despite a high-profile French-language leaders’ debate on Wednesday, the numbers in Quebec remain stable for now.
According to Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos, the full impact of the French debate may take a few days to reflect in the polls. “Debate impact many times has two phases,” he noted. “First on those that watched the debate, and the second on those that absorb the post-debate analysis in the news cycle.”
Meanwhile, in the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate, with 59 per cent support compared to just 27 per cent for the Liberals.
When it comes to leadership, Mark Carney maintains a commanding lead as the preferred choice for prime minister, with 47 per cent of respondents backing him, compared to 34 per cent for Poilievre—a 13-point advantage.
Voter preference breaks down sharply along age and gender lines. Among women, 50 per cent support the Liberals versus 30 per cent for the Conservatives, while 10 per cent back the NDP. Among men, the trend reverses, with 48 per cent favoring the Conservatives and 37 per cent backing the Liberals.
Voters under 35 are leaning Conservative, with 45 per cent support compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals. The NDP performs strongest in this age group at 13 per cent. The 55+ demographic, historically key for turnout, strongly backs the Liberals at 51 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33 per cent.
But it’s the 35 to 54 age group where the race is razor-thin: both the Liberals and Conservatives are locked at 42 per cent.
“This is the critical demographic,” said Nanos. “Throughout the campaign the Liberals have led among voters over 55 and the Conservatives among voters under 35. The battle for middle-aged voters is an absolute dead heat. They represent a key demographic with a strong likelihood to vote.”
As the campaign barrels toward the April 28 vote, all eyes are now on this middle-aged cohort, which could tip the balance in one of Canada’s most competitive elections in recent history.