As Canada’s federal election campaign reaches its halfway mark, the latest Nanos Research tracking poll reveals that the race between the Liberal Party and the Conservative Party is tightening, though Liberal Leader Mark Carney still maintains a narrowing lead.
According to a three-day rolling sample ending April 8, the Liberals hold 43 per cent of national voter support, just four points ahead of the Conservatives, who are now at 39 per cent — marking a steady gain for the Official Opposition.
“We are in a world where 39 per cent support for the Conservatives is not enough to win an election,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. “This is a result of the increasing polarization centred around the two front-running parties.”
- The New Democratic Party (NDP) has edged up slightly to 9 per cent, but remains in single digits.
- The Bloc Québécois sits at 6 per cent nationally, and 27 per cent in Quebec, putting it ahead of the Conservatives in the province.
- The Green Party and People’s Party of Canada (PPC) continue to trail at 2 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively.
In Ontario, the Liberals hold 48 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing at 41 per cent — an important region with a large number of seats in play.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives dominate with 55 per cent, while the Liberals hold 34 per cent. Meanwhile, in British Columbia, the Liberals lead at 41 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 36 per cent and the NDP at 16 per cent — still the strongest region for Jagmeet Singh’s party.
- Mark Carney remains the top choice at 47 per cent, down slightly.
- Pierre Poilievre has gained ground, now sitting at 34 per cent, up three points.
- Jagmeet Singh and other leaders trail significantly.
“Carney retains a comfortable lead on the preferred PM tracking,” said Nanos, “but it is also diminishing.”