The federal Liberal Party, under leader Mark Carney, has expanded its lead over the Conservatives to nine percentage points, according to the latest Nanos Research three-day rolling survey conducted for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
The tracking data, collected up to April 2, shows the Liberals polling at 46 per cent nationally, up four points since the start of the campaign. The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are at 37 per cent, while Jagmeet Singh’s NDP continues to trail in single digits at just nine per cent.
“The Liberals are seeing upward momentum in the early stages of the campaign, rising steadily from 42 to 46 per cent over five days,” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. “In contrast, the NDP’s decline into single digits marks a troubling development for a party that has historically held the position of Official Opposition.”
Regional Trends Regionally, the Liberals continue to dominate in Ontario, where they now command 51 per cent support compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives. In Quebec, the Liberals have gained another percentage point and now sit at 51 per cent, while Conservative support has dipped three points to 18 per cent.
However, in the Prairie provinces, the Conservatives remain the clear favourites, holding strong at 64 per cent support versus 23 per cent for the Liberals.
Carney Extends Lead as Preferred Prime Minister When asked who Canadians would prefer as Prime Minister, Mark Carney continues to lead with 50 per cent, up one point, while Poilievre has dropped to 33 per cent. Singh remains well behind at five per cent.
“Carney’s advantage on the leadership question is significant — his 17-point edge over Poilievre in this category doubles the lead seen in the ballot question,” added Nanos. “It’s reminiscent of the Ontario dynamic, where Doug Ford gained ground by being seen as a counterbalance to Trumpism. Carney appears to be benefiting from a similar public perception nationally.”
Gender Divide The poll also reveals a notable gender divide. Among women surveyed, 52 per cent support the Liberals, compared to 29 per cent backing the Conservatives. Among men, the picture shifts, with 45 per cent supporting the Conservatives and 40 per cent the Liberals.
The Nanos tracking poll is based on a three-day rolling sample and will continue daily throughout the federal election campaign.