With just weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls, the latest update from the CBC Poll Tracker, curated by Éric Grenier of TheWrit.ca, shows the Liberal Party continuing to build momentum, widening its lead over the Conservatives and inching closer to a majority government.
As of March 25, 2025, the Liberals, led by Mark Carney, stand at 39.6% in national support, up 2.0 percentage points since the previous day. The Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, are holding steady at 37.3%, with a marginal 0.3-point gain.
The most significant movement, however, comes from the New Democratic Party, whose support has dropped sharply to 10.1%, down 1.3 points, putting the party at risk of falling into single-digit territory and potentially losing official party status.
Current National Polling Standings:
- Liberal Party (Mark Carney): 39.6% (+2.0)
- Conservative Party (Pierre Poilievre): 37.3% (+0.3)
- New Democratic Party (Jagmeet Singh): 10.1% (–1.3)
- Bloc Québécois (Yves-François Blanchet): 6.4% (no change)
- Green Party (Jonathan Pedneault): 3.3% (–0.6)
- People’s Party (Maxime Bernier): 2.2% (–0.1)
- Other: 1.1% (–0.3)
Seat Projection Highlights:
- The Liberal Party now has a 60% chance of winning a majority government if an election were held today, and an 85% chance of winning the most seats.
- The Conservatives are expected to make modest gains but would likely remain in opposition.
- The Bloc Québécois may lose a few seats but remains relatively stable.
- The NDP is in danger of a near wipeout, with its support concentrated in too few ridings to translate into significant seat wins.
This latest data reinforces a growing trend: as the NDP’s vote share slips, progressive voters appear to be consolidating behind the Liberals, boosting their prospects not only of winning but doing so decisively.
As campaign dynamics intensify in the days ahead, all eyes will be on whether the Conservatives can reverse this trend—and whether the NDP can stabilize its base in time.