The federal Liberals have clawed their way to a 37% tie with the Conservatives in voter support, erasing a long Conservative lead, a Leger online poll shows. Conducted March 7-10 with 1,548 respondents, it captures a seven-point Liberal surge and a six-point Tory drop since late February, while the NDP slips two points to 11%.
The survey, wrapping up as Mark Carney became Liberal leader and prime minister-designate, lacks a margin of error due to its online format, per the Canadian Research Insights Council. After lagging for nearly two years, the Liberals are resurgent—yet 53% of Canadians still want a new government next election.
Leger’s Andrew Enns calls it a “wild shift,” driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and 51st-state bluster. “It’s sparked a whirlwind of emotions—anger, disbelief—that’s rewriting the political script,” he said. Carney, a banking titan turned politico, offers a new lens for voters. “He’s intriguing, especially economically,” Enns added, noting Trudeau’s departure has cracked open voting patterns.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are off-balance. Carney’s move to scrap carbon pricing undercuts Pierre Poilievre’s “axe the tax” edge. With an election possibly imminent, Enns expects more voter pendulum swings ahead.