Donald Trump’s shadow is rewriting Canada’s political script. As his tariff threats rattle the nation, Pierre Poilievre’s once-mighty Conservative lead has shriveled to a measly one point over Mark Carney’s Liberals, according to the latest Nanos polling drop on Tuesday.
The numbers tell the tale: Conservatives sit at 36%, with the Liberals—now helmed by Carney after his landslide leadership win—hot on their heels at 35%. The NDP trails at 15%. A month ago, Poilievre’s crew enjoyed a cushy 20-point edge. Now? It’s a dead heat, fueled by Trudeau’s exit and a Canada-U.S. relationship spiraling into chaos.
Nanos pegs Trump as the new king of Canadian worries, vaulting past jobs and the economy to claim the top spot on voters’ minds over the last four weeks. The data, wrapped up March 7—just before Carney’s coronation—shows the Conservatives at 35.7%, Liberals at 34.7%, NDP at 14.9%, BQ at 7.9%, Greens at 3.8%, and the People’s Party at 2.1%.
Poilievre still edges out Trudeau as the preferred PM pick, but the outgoing leader’s approval is spiking to a 12-month high. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s “power index” mojo is fading compared to last year, per Nanos.
In his debut as PM-designate, Carney came out swinging. “Trump wants to fracture us—divide and conquer. Poilievre’s game plan just hands him the win,” he roared in his victory speech, vowing to squeeze the U.S. until “respect” is on the table.
Poilievre fired back Monday, painting Carney as a sellout. “He’d trade Canada’s soul for a quick buck,” the Conservative chief jabbed. Grilled on whether he’d banned his team from sporting “MAGA” gear amid the Trump tempest, Poilievre sidestepped: “Canada first—that’s my line. We’re bringing jobs home, not shipping them south like Carney did.”
Tuesday dawned with another Trump Truth Social salvo, slamming Canada as a “tariff abuser” and vowing to end U.S. “subsidies” for its northern neighbor. It’s a reaction to Ottawa and Ontario—think Doug Ford’s 25% electricity surcharge—holding firm on retaliatory measures in this trade war rollercoaster Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly dubbed a “psychodrama.”
Tomorrow, Trump’s promised 25% steel and aluminum tariffs are set to bite. Then comes April 2, when broader 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and autos under CUSMA could snap back after a one-month breather.
Nanos’ latest—a randomized phone survey of 1,052 Canadians, ending March 7—carries a 3.0-point margin of error, 19 times out of 20. With Trump stirring the pot, Canada’s ballot box is suddenly anyone’s game.