Premier François Legault has raised the stakes, warning that Quebec could lose between 100,000 and 160,000 jobs if the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on Canadian exports. Speaking on Radio-Canada Monday night, Legault upped his earlier January estimate of 100,000 jobs at risk—then tied to aluminum and lumber tariffs—saying a blanket 25% rate could push losses as high as 160,000. “This is serious,” he said, projecting the impact could hit within “maybe six months.”
The comments came hours after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan Monday to slap 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, though Legault remains cautiously optimistic Trump might pivot, as he’s done before. “I’m still hoping he reconsiders,” Legault said, echoing Ottawa’s wait-and-see stance on the tariff details.
Legault argued Trump’s own interests could soften the blow. “He can’t do without certain things—Alberta’s oil, Quebec’s electricity, aluminum, and lumber,” he said. “A 25% tariff on aluminum? That jacks up car prices in the U.S. It doesn’t add up.” Still, Quebec isn’t banking on a U.S. retreat. Legault revealed a “Plan B” in the works for weeks, with a special cabinet meeting set for Tuesday to finalize a diversification fund for struggling companies. The upcoming spring budget will boost agencies like Investissement Québec, and infrastructure spending on roads and hospitals will ramp up to spark jobs.
Hydro-Québec’s massive $155–$185 billion plan to double its output offers another buffer, promising thousands of new positions. “We’re turning on the taps,” Legault said. “If we lose 100,000 jobs, it’s our job to help businesses weather this and diversify—replacing lost work with public investment.”
Quebec’s record $11 billion deficit? Not a worry yet, Legault shrugged off. “My duty is to shield Quebecers,” he said, touting unique assets like Hydro-Québec that other provinces can’t match.
He nodded to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s threat to cut U.S. power exports, adding that Quebec hasn’t ruled out retaliation either. Ottawa’s got $30 billion in counter-tariffs ready— targeting U.S. orange juice, cosmetics, sinks, and more— with a second wave planned for cars, metals, aerospace, and produce. “To shorten this tariff mess, we need to sting Trump where it hurts,” Legault said. “He relies on our oil, lumber, aluminum, electricity. We start with counter-tariffs, but like Ford, I say nothing’s off the table. Trump’s choices don’t even make sense for Americans.”
Timing those reprisals? “We’re not tipping our hand too early,” he said, keeping Quebec’s strategy close.