A new Mainstreet Research poll suggests that Mark Carney remains the frontrunner in the Liberal leadership race, but Chrystia Freeland is closing the gap, making a first-ballot victory unlikely for Carney.
The poll, conducted among registered Liberal members, shows Carney leading with 43% support on the first ballot, while Freeland follows closely at 31%. Karina Gould comes in third with 16%, while Frank Baylis lags behind at 3%, with 7% of members still undecided.
Since the Liberal leadership race uses a ranked-ballot system, Carney’s lead could grow on subsequent rounds, with polling indicating he would pick up roughly half of all second-choice votes. Mainstreet pollster Quito Maggi predicts that while Carney won’t secure an outright win on the first ballot, he remains the strong favorite to take the leadership in later rounds.
The impact of the French and English debates could still shift the race. Google search analytics showed a surge in interest for Gould following the French-language debate, while Carney’s French skills received mixed reviews—a factor that could influence voting in Quebec and bilingual ridings.
The candidates will have one final debate on Tuesday before advance voting begins Wednesday. The new Liberal leader will be announced on March 9 in Ottawa.