Over the years, the relationship between India and the United States has undergone significant transformations. However, with Donald Trump’s latest policy shifts, India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing increasing challenges in its bilateral relations with the U.S. The growing tensions stem from multiple issues, including trade disputes, defense deals, foreign policy disagreements, and immigration crackdowns. Below, we explore how Trump is sidelining Modi and the broader implications of this shift.
1. Trade and Tariff Issues: Trump’s Push for ‘Fair Trade’
One of the major friction points between Trump and Modi is trade, with Trump repeatedly criticizing India’s high tariffs on American goods. India has historically imposed steep import duties on products such as U.S. motorcycles, medical devices, and agricultural products. Trump has often called India the “tariff king” and demanded a more balanced trade relationship.
- Trump’s Retaliatory Tariffs: The U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum, leading to trade disputes. Despite India’s efforts to reduce some tariffs, Trump remains unsatisfied, demanding complete elimination of duties on several U.S. exports.
- Termination of India’s GSP Status: In 2019, Trump revoked India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which had allowed duty-free entry for certain Indian products. This move significantly impacted Indian exporters, leading to substantial financial losses.
- Reduced Access to U.S. Markets: Trump has pushed for stricter scrutiny on Indian pharmaceutical exports, IT services, and textile products, further limiting India’s trade access to American markets.
This aggressive stance signals Trump’s prioritization of domestic economic interests over fostering a cooperative economic partnership with India.
2. Defense Deals and Strategic Purchases: India Pressured to Buy More U.S. Weapons
The United States has increasingly pressured India to purchase American military equipment rather than relying on Russia or indigenous defense production. Trump has made it clear that he expects India to increase its defense spending on U.S. weapons.
- F-35 Fighter Jet Deal Pressure: The Trump administration has been urging India to replace its Russian-made MiG aircraft with F-35 stealth fighter jets, but India remains reluctant due to high costs and long delivery timelines.
- S-400 Missile System Dispute: Trump was displeased when India proceeded with its $5.4 billion deal with Russia to acquire S-400 missile defense systems, despite U.S. warnings of possible sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act).
- Push for More Oil Imports from the U.S.: The Trump administration pressured India to purchase more American crude oil and natural gas to reduce reliance on Iranian and Russian energy sources. Although Modi complied to some extent, Trump remained dissatisfied with the slow transition.
These mounting demands indicate Trump’s approach of treating India more as a business partner than a strategic ally.
3. Modi’s Diminished Role in Global Conflicts: Ukraine and Gaza Wars
Under Trump’s leadership, India’s influence in key global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Gaza conflict, has significantly declined.
- Ukraine-Russia War: India has maintained a neutral stance, continuing trade relations with Russia despite Western sanctions. Trump, who has been critical of NATO and America’s involvement in European conflicts, sees India’s position as irrelevant and has largely ignored Modi’s attempts to play a diplomatic role.
- Gaza War: The U.S. has taken a firm pro-Israel stance, while India has tried to balance relations with both Israel and Palestine. Trump, known for his strong support of Israel, sees India’s position as inconsequential and has sidelined Modi’s efforts to engage in any diplomatic mediation.
As a result, Modi’s global presence in conflict resolution has weakened under Trump’s administration.
4. Harsh Immigration Policies: Discriminatory Treatment of Indian Deportees
Another striking issue is Trump’s strict immigration enforcement, particularly towards Indian nationals. While he has been relatively lenient towards illegal migrants from countries like Cuba and Venezuela, Indian deportees face harsher treatment.
- Increased Deportations: Under Trump, the deportation of Indian nationals, especially Sikhs and asylum seekers, has risen sharply. Reports indicate that many Indian migrants detained in the U.S. have faced inhumane conditions in detention centers.
- Strict Visa Policies: Trump’s administration imposed tighter restrictions on H-1B work visas, which are predominantly used by Indian professionals in the IT sector. This move significantly affected Indian companies and workers in the U.S.
- Discriminatory Treatment Compared to Other Nations: While Trump has shown some flexibility in granting asylum to refugees from politically unstable nations, Indian immigrants seeking asylum due to religious or political persecution face greater scrutiny and denial rates.
This reflects Trump’s lack of interest in fostering goodwill with India when it comes to immigration policies.
5. Modi’s Support for Kamala Harris Irritated Trump
During the 2020 U.S. elections, Modi’s outreach towards Vice President Kamala Harris did not sit well with Trump. Modi had extended congratulatory messages to Harris, emphasizing her Indian heritage. This gesture was perceived as an indirect endorsement of the Biden-Harris administration.
- Trump’s Response: Trump viewed Modi’s warming ties with Harris as a betrayal, given his previous efforts to build personal rapport with Modi during events like the “Howdy Modi” rally in Houston.
- Lack of Interest in Engaging with Modi: Since then, Trump’s administration has largely distanced itself from Modi, avoiding high-profile meetings and engagements.
This suggests that Modi’s attempts to align with both sides of the U.S. political spectrum have backfired.
6. Cuts in Foreign Aid and Trade Restrictions
Trump has significantly reduced U.S. financial aid to India, arguing that India does not need economic assistance as it is now a major global economy.
- Funding Cuts: The Trump administration slashed funding for various U.S.-India development programs, including healthcare and education initiatives.
- Increased Trade Restrictions: Trump imposed stricter regulatory measures on Indian exports, particularly in pharmaceuticals and textiles, citing quality and compliance issues.
These moves demonstrate that Trump sees India more as a competitor than an ally when it comes to economic matters.
7. Trump’s Changing Stance on Russia and China: Modi Sidelined in U.S. Strategy
Softening on Russia: India’s Influence Diminished
- Less Need for India in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict: With Trump willing to negotiate directly with Putin, Modi’s balancing act loses relevance.
- Potential Reduction in U.S. Sanctions on Russia: This could affect India’s ability to buy discounted Russian oil and weapons.
- Muted Criticism of India’s Russian Military Ties: While Biden pushed India to reduce its defense reliance on Russia, Trump is indifferent, treating India as a non-priority.
Shift on China: Modi’s Economic and Strategic Setbacks
- Reopening Trade Talks with China: If Trump lifts tariffs, India loses its advantage as an alternative to China for global supply chains.
- Weakened U.S. Support for India’s Border Disputes: Trump’s new focus on economic engagement with China means less diplomatic backing for India’s conflicts in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.
- Reduced Role in Indo-Pacific Strategy: Modi’s efforts to position India as a key defense ally through QUAD (U.S.-India-Japan-Australia alliance) may weaken if Trump prioritizes economic cooperation over strategic alliances.
8. Trump’s Opposition to Modi’s ‘Vishwaguru’ Dream
Modi has long envisioned positioning India as a global leader or “Vishwaguru” (world teacher). However, Trump’s policies have directly undermined Modi’s ambitions.
- Ignoring India on Global Issues: Trump focuses on strengthening ties with Japan, Israel, and Australia, sidelining India.
- Blocking Modi’s Role in International Forums: Modi’s aspirations to gain permanent membership in the UN Security Council have received little support from Trump.
- Marginalizing India in the Indo-Pacific Strategy: The U.S. has emphasized ties with Japan and Australia over India in critical defense initiatives.
Trump’s policies have increased trade pressures, restricted diplomatic engagements, and weakened India’s strategic role. Unlike previous U.S. administrations, Trump treats India as a business partner rather than a growing global power. Unless India fully aligns with U.S. economic and geopolitical interests, Modi’s vision of India as a self-sufficient world leader remains uncertain under Trump’s leadership.