With the Ontario provincial election just one week away, a recent Nanos Research survey indicates that Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party (PC) maintains a 13-point advantage over Bonnie Crombie’s Liberal Party. The survey, conducted on February 16, 18, and 19, 2025, involved 936 Ontario voters.
Key Findings:
- Party Support Among Decided Voters:
- Progressive Conservative Party: 44.1%
- Liberal Party: 30.7%
- New Democratic Party (NDP): 16.6%
- Green Party: 6.6%
- Party Support Including Undecided Voters:
- Progressive Conservative Party: 40.1%
- Liberal Party: 27.9%
- New Democratic Party: 15.1%
- Green Party: 6.0%
- Other: 1.9%
- Undecided: 8.9%
Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, noted that the PCs lead across all age groups and among male voters, while the competition among female voters remains tight between the PCs and Liberals.
Preferred Premier:
- Doug Ford (PC): 41.3%
- Ford’s leadership continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
- Bonnie Crombie (Liberal): 25.4%
- Crombie is working to close the gap as the campaign enters its final week.
- Marit Stiles (NDP): 14.2%
- Stiles aims to bolster her party’s position in the remaining days.
- Mike Schreiner (Green): 6.9%
- Schreiner seeks to increase the Green Party’s influence in the provincial landscape.
Regional Insights:
- Toronto:
- Liberal Party: 39.7%
- Progressive Conservative Party: 38.6%
- New Democratic Party: 16.8%
- Green Party: 3.6%
- The Liberals hold a marginal lead in Toronto, highlighting the city’s status as a key battleground.
- Greater Toronto Area (GTA):
- Progressive Conservative Party: 50.8%
- Liberal Party: 27.7%
- New Democratic Party: 13.6%
- Green Party: 2.3%
- The PCs have a substantial lead in the GTA, a critical region for electoral success.
The survey’s margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. As the election approaches, parties are intensifying their campaigns to sway undecided voters and solidify their support bases.