STAVANGER, Norway — U.S. President Donald Trump is once again in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize, but experts say his chances of actually winning the world’s most prestigious peace award remain remote.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is set to announce this year’s Peace Prize winner next Friday, and Trump’s name has re-emerged among bookmakers’ favourites after a series of high-profile nominations. However, Nobel observers say the committee typically rewards long-term peacebuilding and international cooperation — areas where Trump’s record is mixed at best.
“Trump’s efforts have not yet been proven to be long-lasting,” said Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. “There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short term and resolving the root causes of the conflict.”
The committee also places heavy weight on multilateralism and climate action, which experts say works against Trump. “I don’t think they would award the most prestigious prize in the world to someone who does not believe in climate change,” Zenou added. “When you look at previous winners who have been bridge-builders, embodied international cooperation and reconciliation: these are not words we associate with Donald Trump.”
High-Profile Nominations, Low Odds
Trump has been nominated multiple times since 2018 by American and international figures. Most recently, U.S. Congresswoman Claudia Tenney nominated him for his role in the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized ties between Israel and several Arab states. However, recent nominations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Pakistan’s government came after the February 1 deadline for this year’s prize.
The president has repeatedly boasted that he “deserves” the award, citing claims of ending “seven wars” and his current push for a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. Speaking to military leaders this week, Trump joked, “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.”
Nobel experts say the committee may be wary of appearing politically pressured, especially after facing backlash for awarding Barack Obama the prize just nine months into his first term. “Trump’s rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective,” said Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. “His prospects for the prize this year are a long shot.”
A Prize with Global Stakes
The Nobel Peace Prize, awarded annually in Oslo, is determined by a five-member committee appointed by Norway’s parliament. Its deliberations are strictly confidential for 50 years, making the run-up to the announcement a global guessing game.
This year’s Nobel announcements begin Monday with the Medicine Prize, followed by Physics, Chemistry and Literature. The Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, with the Economics Prize to follow on October 13.
While Trump’s nomination has drawn international attention, experts say the committee is more likely to honour individuals or organizations engaged in sustained, multilateral peace efforts — not headline-grabbing diplomacy.