Toronto’s condominium market is showing early signs of stability, but analysts and real estate professionals believe prices are likely to decline further before finally reaching their lowest point. Weak demand combined with a large supply of available units continues to put downward pressure on the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) condo market.
Economists expect condo prices to continue falling through at least the first half of 2027 as sales remain sluggish and inventory levels stay elevated. Sales activity across the GTA has declined compared with the same period last year, while the number of resale units available on the market remains unusually high. The imbalance between supply and demand has resulted in continued price reductions.
Current forecasts suggest benchmark condo prices could decline by about seven per cent this year and another two to three per cent in 2027 before stabilizing later in the year. If these projections prove accurate, prices could ultimately sit 25 to 30 per cent below their peak levels reached in early 2022.
The question facing many prospective buyers is whether to enter the market now or wait for even lower prices. Some large investors appear to believe the market has already reached attractive levels. A major Montreal-based developer recently announced plans to acquire hundreds of condominium units in Toronto as part of a large investment strategy.
Despite this confidence, many local real estate agents believe the resale market has not yet reached its bottom. Sales activity in downtown Toronto remains weak, and inventory continues to be plentiful. Although buyer inquiries have increased in recent months, the additional interest has not yet translated into significantly higher sales volumes.
Even so, current market conditions strongly favour buyers. Years of falling prices and rising inventory have shifted bargaining power away from sellers, giving purchasers greater flexibility to negotiate and conduct thorough due diligence. Buyers are being encouraged to carefully explore available options and pursue properties that offer exceptional value.
For first-time homebuyers, today’s market presents opportunities that may not remain available indefinitely. Experts caution against trying to perfectly time the market, emphasizing that buyers should focus instead on finding properties with desirable layouts, preferred locations and prices that fit comfortably within their budgets.
Investors, many of whom remained on the sidelines during the market downturn, are beginning to show renewed interest. Institutional buyers have started acquiring larger blocks of units, reflecting growing confidence among those with long-term investment horizons. Industry observers warn that if end-users fail to take advantage of current conditions, investors could once again dominate the market.
Despite the broader weakness, attractive and well-designed units in desirable neighbourhoods continue to generate competition and, in some cases, multiple offers. Looking further ahead, some experts believe the market could eventually face a shortage of supply, as many proposed condominium developments have struggled to achieve enough pre-construction sales to move forward.
For now, however, the Toronto resale condo market remains heavily influenced by abundant supply and cautious demand. Affordability concerns, economic uncertainty, slower population growth and a softer labour market in Ontario continue to weigh on buyer confidence. Many prospective purchasers are still waiting in hopes that prices will fall further.
While these conditions have created challenges for sellers, they have produced one of the most favourable buying environments seen in years. As many industry professionals observe, it is currently an enjoyable time to be a buyer, but a difficult time to be a seller.