With just one day left in the 2025 federal election campaign, the Liberals’ national lead over the Conservatives has narrowed to just three points, according to the latest Nanos Research polling. The new three-day rolling sample conducted between April 23 and 25 shows the Liberals at 42 per cent support nationally, while the Conservatives sit close behind at 39 per cent.
Pollster Nik Nanos noted that the most significant recent movement has come from battleground Ontario, where the Liberal lead has sharply declined. Just days ago, the Liberals held a double-digit advantage in the province, but they now lead by only five points, with 46 per cent support compared to 41 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP trails with eight per cent in Ontario.
Regionally, the Liberals remain ahead in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Quebec, while the Conservatives continue to dominate the Prairies. British Columbia remains fiercely competitive, with the Liberals holding a slim one-point edge at 39 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the Conservatives. In Quebec, the Liberals maintain a strong position at 41 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 26 per cent and the Conservatives at 21 per cent.
In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals command a massive 62 per cent of support compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, with the NDP trailing at just three per cent. Meanwhile, in the Prairies, Conservative strength is overwhelming, with 58 per cent support compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals and 11 per cent for the NDP.
When Canadians were asked who they would prefer as prime minister, Liberal Leader Mark Carney held a clear advantage, with 47 per cent backing him compared to 34 per cent for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh lagged far behind at six per cent.
The poll also revealed distinct gender and age divides. Women are significantly more likely to support the Liberals, with 49 per cent backing Carney’s party compared to 31 per cent for Poilievre’s Conservatives and 10 per cent for Singh’s NDP. Among men, however, the Conservatives lead with 46 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Liberals.
Age-wise, younger voters under 35 favor the Conservatives by a wide margin, with 44 per cent supporting Poilievre compared to 31 per cent for Carney and 13 per cent for Singh. Among middle-aged voters aged 35 to 54, the Conservatives also lead with 45 per cent support to the Liberals’ 36 per cent. However, the Liberals dominate among older voters, with 51 per cent support among Canadians aged 55 and up compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives.
The Nanos tracking survey was conducted with 1,291 respondents between April 23 and 25, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
As Canadians prepare to cast their final ballots, the momentum appears to be tightening, especially in crucial regions like Ontario, setting the stage for an intense election night.