On the final day of the 2025 federal election campaign, the Liberals hold a four-point lead over the Conservatives, according to the latest exclusive polling data from Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
The three-day rolling sample, conducted from April 24 to 26, shows the Liberals sitting at 43 per cent support nationally, compared to 39 per cent for the Conservatives. The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent, the Bloc Québécois at six per cent, the Green Party at three per cent, and the People’s Party of Canada at one per cent.
Regionally, the Liberals are leading in the Atlantic provinces, Ontario, and Quebec, while the Conservatives dominate in the Prairie provinces. In British Columbia, the race remains a dead heat, with both the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 39 per cent support.
In Ontario, where the Liberals once held a double-digit advantage earlier this week, the gap has narrowed to six points, with the Liberals polling at 48 per cent and the Conservatives at 42. In Quebec, the Liberals hold a strong lead with 41 per cent support, compared to 22 per cent for the Conservatives and 26 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.
Across the Prairies, the Conservatives maintain a commanding lead with 56 per cent support against 33 per cent for the Liberals. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals enjoy a dominant position with 58 per cent support compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives.
When it comes to leadership preference, Liberal Leader Mark Carney holds a 14-point advantage over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Forty-nine per cent of voters polled said they preferred Carney as prime minister, while 35 per cent preferred Poilievre. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remains a distant third at five per cent.
Breaking the numbers down by gender, women continue to lean heavily towards the Liberals, with 49 per cent backing Carney’s party, compared to 31 per cent supporting the Conservatives and 13 per cent supporting the NDP. Among men, 47 per cent said they would vote Conservative, compared to 37 per cent for the Liberals and seven per cent for the NDP.
Among voters under 35, the Conservative lead has narrowed, with 44 per cent backing them versus 39 per cent supporting the Liberals. The NDP’s support among young voters has fallen to seven per cent. Middle-aged voters between 35 and 54 slightly favour the Conservatives at 44 per cent over the Liberals at 39 per cent. Among voters aged 55 and older, the Liberals dominate, with 51 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Conservatives.
The final Nanos tracking survey will be released tonight as Canadians prepare to head to the polls on Monday to decide the country’s next government.