A new Nanos Research survey commissioned by CTV News reveals that more than six in ten Ontarians disagree with Premier Doug Ford’s decision to call an early provincial election, originally scheduled for June 2026 but now set for February 27, 2025.
The poll, conducted between February 4 and 6, surveyed 904 Ontario adults and found that:
- 52% outright disagreed with Ford’s snap election call.
- 11% somewhat disagreed, bringing total opposition to 63%.
- Only 17% agreed, while 16% somewhat agreed, totaling 33% approval.
- 4% of respondents were unsure.
The greatest opposition to Ford’s snap election was found in Toronto, where 69.3% of respondents said they either disagreed or somewhat disagreed with the move. Similarly, 59.3% of respondents in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) opposed the decision.
By contrast, Ontarians in the northeastern part of the province showed the highest level of support, with 36.2% agreeing with the decision to hold an early election
The survey also found a gender divide, with 37% of men supporting the early election, compared to only 28.5% of women.
Among age groups, voters aged 55 and older expressed the strongest opposition, with 67.8% disapproving of Ford’s decision. Meanwhile, younger voters (18-34 years old) were the most receptive, with 37.3% in favor of the early election.
Despite Doug Ford’s justification for the early election, citing the need for a “strong mandate” to handle looming tariff threats from the U.S., the survey suggests potential political risks.
“What’s interesting is that in addition to a majority either disagreeing or somewhat disagreeing with the early election call, the proportion favouring the election call (34%) is lower than PC ballot support (46%),” said Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research. “This suggests a noticeable number of PCs do not favour the early election.”
Despite opposition to the early election call, the Progressive Conservatives maintain a lead in most regions of Ontario. However, the race remains tight in Toronto, where the PCs and Liberals are in a dead heat at 36% support each, according to the survey.
The Nanos survey was conducted via random telephone interviews with 904 Ontarian adults between February 4 and 6, 2025. The results are considered accurate within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
As Ontario heads to the polls on February 27, this new data highlights significant voter skepticism about the timing of the election. With opposition strongest among older voters and in key urban centers like Toronto, Ford’s campaign will need to navigate public concerns carefully while trying to secure a fresh four-year mandate.