With just over a week left in the 36-day federal election campaign, the Liberal Party, under the leadership of Mark Carney, has taken a significant lead in the race, according to the latest polling data released by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail.
The daily tracking poll, based on a three-day rolling sample ending April 17, places the Liberals at 45 per cent support nationally, compared to 37 per cent for the Conservatives — giving the Liberals an 8-point advantage. The New Democratic Party trails at 8 per cent, with the Bloc Québécois at 6 per cent, the Green Party at 3 per cent, and the People’s Party of Canada at 1 per cent.
The data reveals strong regional support for the Liberals in critical battlegrounds. In Ontario, the Liberals are leading with 48 per cent, compared to 41 per cent for the Conservatives and 8 per cent for the NDP. In Quebec, the Liberals have strengthened their post-debate momentum with 48 per cent support, maintaining a commanding lead over the Bloc Québécois at 25 per cent and the Conservatives at 19 per cent. The party also dominates in Atlantic Canada, where 61 per cent of respondents favour the Liberals.
The Conservatives maintain their stronghold in the Prairies, where they command 56 per cent support. However, the Liberals have made notable inroads in British Columbia, now polling at 45 per cent versus 36 per cent for the Conservatives and 12 per cent for the NDP.
The poll also sheds light on the preferred choice for prime minister, with Mark Carney garnering 48 per cent support, a full 14-point lead over Pierre Poilievre at 34 per cent. Jagmeet Singh trails significantly at just 5 per cent.
A deeper demographic analysis shows that women are significantly more likely to support the Liberal Party, with 50 per cent of female respondents favouring the Liberals versus 30 per cent for the Conservatives. Among men, Conservative support leads slightly at 44 per cent, but Liberal backing has increased to 41 per cent.
Age-wise, the Liberals dominate the 55+ category, securing 52 per cent support compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives. Among voters aged 35 to 54, the Liberals are also in the lead with 43 per cent versus 39 per cent for the Conservatives. While the Conservatives still edge out the Liberals among voters under 35, their lead has narrowed to just two points (41% to 39%), suggesting growing momentum for the Liberals among younger Canadians.
Nanos Research’s findings come in the wake of both French and English leaders’ debates. While the full impact of the English-language debate is yet to be determined, early indications suggest the Liberals are maintaining or increasing their support in key regions.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, the Liberals appear to be gaining confidence and traction, supported by a strong platform, clear messaging on affordability, healthcare, and climate, and a growing contrast with the Conservative agenda. With voter preferences firming up, all eyes now turn to advance voting and the critical final week of the race.