Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s lead over Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie has slightly declined since the start of the election campaign, according to the latest Nanos Research survey commissioned by CTV News.
The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) now hold 44% support among decided voters, compared to 31% for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. This marks a three-point drop in Ford’s lead, from a 16-point advantage to 13 points over Crombie’s Liberals.
Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research, noted that while Ford still maintains a commanding lead province-wide, the competition in Toronto remains fierce between the PCs and Liberals.
“With a margin of error of three percentage points, this shift is a trendline worth monitoring closely,” said Nanos.
The latest poll, conducted between February 7 and February 9, found that among decided Toronto voters, support was almost evenly split:
- 36.2% favoring the Progressive Conservatives
- 34.3% backing the Liberals
- 24.5% supporting the NDP
In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Ford’s PCs still hold a 10-point advantage over the Liberals, with 48% of respondents supporting the PCs, compared to 38% backing the Liberals.
Despite the tightening race, Ford remains the top choice for premier among respondents:
- 39% chose Doug Ford
- 26% preferred Bonnie Crombie
- 15% favored NDP Leader Marit Stiles
- 5% supported Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner
As part of CTV News’ nightly tracking, Nanos Research conducted random telephone interviews using a three-night rolling average of 900 Ontario voters. The latest survey results include 920 voters polled between February 7 and February 9. The margin of error is 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.
With Ontario’s provincial election scheduled for February 27, 2025, the next few weeks will be critical as the Liberals attempt to close the gap on Ford’s PCs.