Newly released data shows that Ontario’s allocation of international student spaces has been distributed unevenly across colleges and universities, underscoring how federal caps are reshaping enrolment — and finances — across the province’s post-secondary system.
Figures obtained through a freedom-of-information request detail how provincial attestation letters (PALs), now required for most international students seeking study permits, have been assigned and used over the first two years of Ottawa’s effort to rein in foreign enrolment. The data highlights stark contrasts between institutions, with some unable to fill their allotments while others sought and received thousands more.
Introduced in 2024, PALs serve as proof of admission to a designated learning institution and ensure students are counted within each province’s share of the national cap.
“The contrast between the college and university sector, particularly around usage of PALs, is striking,” said Elizabeth Buckner, an associate professor at OISE who studies internationalization in higher education. “Colleges are still allocated significantly more PALs and yet using less of them … while the university sector has been less impacted by these shifts. And in addition to hitting sectors differently, it’s hitting institutions unequally.”
Conestoga leads allocations
Conestoga College in Kitchener — long scrutinized for rapidly expanding its international enrolment — received the largest share of PALs this year and successfully requested an additional 2,000 mid-year.
By contrast, most publicly funded institutions moved in the opposite direction. Of Ontario’s 47 public colleges and universities, 34 voluntarily returned unused PALs in 2025. Those spots were redistributed to eight schools, including the University of Toronto, Laurentian University and Humber Polytechnic.
Ontario’s shrinking totals
Ontario is heading into its third year of declining international student numbers. In 2026, the province will receive 104,780 PALs — a 42 per cent reduction from this year — with a cap of 70,074 study permits, accounting for refusals, withdrawals and delays.
Sector leaders warn the cuts come amid frozen domestic tuition and long-standing funding shortfalls. Steve Orsini, president and CEO of the Council of Ontario Universities, said falling international enrolment has reduced university revenues by about $1 billion over the past two years.
“It limits Ontario’s ability to develop talent, weakens university research and innovation capacity, and compounds the already significant financial pressures facing universities,” Orsini said.
Maureen Adamson, president and CEO of Colleges Ontario, has warned that revenue losses at colleges have exceeded worst-case projections, putting future sustainability at risk.
Since the federal cap was introduced in 2024 — aimed at curbing rapid growth blamed partly for housing pressures and driven by what Ottawa called “bad actors” — the number of study permit holders in Canada has dropped from about one million to roughly 725,000. Ottawa aims to reduce temporary residents to below five per cent of the population by the end of 2027.
How PALs are distributed
Each province decides how to distribute its PALs. In Ontario, nearly all are allocated to public colleges and universities, with about four per cent going to private institutions. The province says priority is given to programs aligned with in-demand jobs.
“Our government will continue to work alongside all of our colleges and universities to protect the integrity of the post-secondary education system and ensure the province is attracting the best and brightest students,” said Bianca Giacoboni, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security.
But Buckner said shifting federal and provincial rules have created confusion for both institutions and prospective students. “Knowing where PALs have been allocated and how many are being issued is one useful piece of data that helps us understand the broader story the sector is facing,” she said.
Usage gaps in 2024
In 2024, Ontario received 235,000 PALs, targeting 141,000 study permits. Public colleges were allocated 189,416 PALs but used only 55 per cent of them. Public universities, by contrast, used 82 per cent of their 35,460 allocation.
Within the college sector, usage varied widely. Humber Polytechnic used nearly all its PALs, while Northern College used just 28 per cent. Northern later closed a private partnership and has faced layoffs. Provincewide, more than 10,000 college staff have been laid off and more than 600 programs suspended or cancelled as international numbers dropped.
Among universities, the University of Toronto issued the most PALs in 2024, with 6,165. Trent, Guelph, Ottawa and Waterloo used nearly all their allocations, while Nipissing University used only 11 per cent.
Changes in 2025
Ontario’s allocation fell to 181,590 PALs in 2025 and, for the first time, had to include graduate students. Public colleges received 113,793 PALs, while universities were allocated 57,685.
With graduate students included, some institutions saw increases. U of T, for example, rose from 6,395 PALs in 2024 to 12,338 in 2025.
In 2026, graduate students at public institutions will be exempt from needing PALs but will still count toward the overall cap, meaning allocations will again shift.
Returned and clawed-back spots
To prevent PALs from going unused, Ontario introduced a mid-year clawback in 2025, reclaiming allocations from schools that failed to meet targets by June. The system was later adjusted to a sliding scale, with about 3,000 PALs redistributed.
Schools were also invited to voluntarily return unused spots. Fourteen colleges and 20 universities did so, with Mohawk College, Trent University and the University of Ottawa each returning more than 900. In total, 10,500 PALs were redistributed to eight institutions with higher demand.
The province says it will continue the practice in 2026 to ensure “maximum usage” of its allocation.
Approval rates remain a hurdle
Even with a PAL, a study permit is not guaranteed. Federal data shows approval rates fell to 52 per cent in 2024 and to 33 per cent this year, often due to delays or missing documentation. However, approval rates for Ontario undergraduate university applicants have risen to 64 per cent.
Together, the data paints a picture of a system under strain, where tighter caps are reshaping who can recruit international students — and how unevenly the impact is being felt across Ontario’s campuses.
Courtsey The Star