For the first time since the pandemic, Canadians are living slightly longer, but experts warn the good news may not last. New data from Statistics Canada shows life expectancy at birth rose to 81.7 years in 2023, up from 81.3 the year before — a small rebound after COVID-19 caused historic declines.
Doug Norris, senior vice-president and chief demographer at Environics Analytics, says the uptick likely represents a return to pre-pandemic levels rather than the beginning of a new growth trend. “We’ll probably be back to where we were before COVID, maybe a little bit higher,” he told CTVNews.ca. “But the increases we’ll see going forward … are going to be a lot less than we saw 10 and 20 years ago.”
One major drag on life expectancy is the worsening opioid crisis. Canada recorded 7,162 accidental drug poisoning deaths in 2023 — the highest number ever reported — surpassing even pandemic-era totals. Norris says these deaths will continue to weigh heavily on life expectancy gains, slowing progress even as COVID deaths drop sharply (down 60 per cent year over year).
Other health pressures are also mounting. Rising obesity rates, chronic conditions linked to alcohol and inactivity, and environmental stressors are expected to challenge public health efforts. Norris adds that the benefits of past medical breakthroughs may be plateauing, meaning Canadians can no longer count on major leaps in longevity from new treatments.
While some have speculated that Canada’s growing use of medical assistance in dying (MAID) could affect life expectancy, Norris believes its current impact is small compared to COVID and opioids.
Overall, experts expect life expectancy to continue edging upward but warn Canadians not to expect the steady, robust gains of past decades. “Where we would like it to be is we’d like to see increases year over year,” Norris said. “But there’s no guarantee.”