OTTAWA — With Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first federal budget set to be tabled next week, both the Conservative and NDP caucuses are locked in tense internal debates over whether to support it — or risk plunging Canada into an early election just weeks before Christmas.
Multiple party insiders told CBC News that neither the Conservatives nor the New Democrats have finalized their strategy, and the possibility of the minority Liberal government losing its budget vote remains “very real.”
Senior Conservative sources say Pierre Poilievre’s leadership team does not want an election right now, but will not vote for a Liberal budget they fundamentally oppose. However, they acknowledge that with the current numbers in the House of Commons, the budget does not yet have enough support to pass.
Poilievre has set non-negotiable conditions for his support — scrapping the industrial carbon tax and capping the deficit at $42 billion — but the Liberals have already ruled those out.
Meanwhile, the Bloc Québécois has presented its own list of demands, including higher Old Age Security payments, larger health transfers, and interest-free loans for first-time homebuyers. The Liberals have reportedly agreed to one Bloc priority — cracking down on a long-criticized tax-evasion scheme in the trucking sector — but stopped short of meeting the rest.
According to several sources, the most likely path to avoiding an election may be if some NDP MPs abstain from voting, allowing the budget to squeak through without full NDP endorsement.
At a Conservative caucus meeting Wednesday, MPs were instructed not to attack the NDP publicly — a noticeable strategic shift from their previous approach. Party insiders say the Conservatives believe they may need the NDP’s tactical cooperation to avoid public blame for toppling the government.
The Liberal government, which holds 169 seats compared to 174 held by opposition parties, needs at least three votes — or two if the Speaker breaks a tie — to survive.
Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon has urged the opposition to show restraint. “Walk down the aisle and tell the grinchy leader of the Opposition to vote for the budget. Don’t ruin Christmas,” he quipped in the Commons on Thursday.
The NDP, now leaderless and financially strained after a poor election showing, faces a dilemma. Interim leader Don Davies said the party will decide after reviewing the budget, adding that the Liberals “run the risk of not earning our support” if they don’t include investments for working families, affordable housing, and public health care.
Davies also warned that the NDP “will not accept an austerity approach,” hinting that deep cuts — part of Carney’s plan to balance the budget within three years — could cost the Liberals his party’s votes.
If the budget fails, Canadians could head to the polls before the holidays, a scenario no party seems eager to face. For now, the political math remains delicate — and all eyes are on how both opposition caucuses will calculate their next move when the budget hits the floor on November 4.
Courtsey: CBC News