As Canada approaches the final days of the federal election campaign, a new poll by Nanos Research shows the Liberals holding a five-point national lead over the Conservatives. Conducted between April 22 and 24, the three-day rolling sample places the Liberals at 43 per cent, while the Conservatives sit at 38 per cent. The NDP follows with eight per cent, the Bloc Québécois at six, the Greens at three, and the People’s Party of Canada at one per cent.
The data points to a stark regional divide across the country, which pollster Nik Nanos described as a “nation divided between East and West.” The Liberals are firmly ahead in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and Quebec, while the Conservatives dominate the Prairies. British Columbia remains too close to call, showing a near-even split between the two major parties.
In Ontario, the Liberals’ early double-digit lead has narrowed to seven points, with 47 per cent support versus 40 for the Conservatives. The NDP trails with eight per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals have pulled ahead significantly with 41 per cent support, while the Bloc stands at 26 and the Conservatives at 21. Out West, Conservative strength remains clear. In the Prairies, 57 per cent support the Conservatives, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals. In British Columbia, the Conservatives edge out a slim lead at 41 per cent, just ahead of the Liberals at 39, with the NDP at 13.
Atlantic Canada remains a Liberal stronghold, with 62 per cent support versus 34 for the Conservatives. The NDP registers just three per cent in that region.
When it comes to preferred prime minister, Liberal leader Mark Carney is ahead of his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre by 11 points. Forty-six per cent of those surveyed named Carney as their top choice, compared with 35 per cent for Poilievre. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lags behind at five per cent.
Demographic breakdowns show that women continue to favour the Liberals, with 48 per cent of women surveyed backing them, compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives and eight per cent for the NDP. Among men, the Conservatives lead with 45 per cent support versus 37 per cent for the Liberals and nine per cent for the NDP.
Voters under 35 show a strong preference for the Conservatives, who command 44 per cent support in that age group, while the Liberals sit at 31 and the NDP at 13. Among voters aged 35 to 54, it’s a statistical tie with the Liberals at 42 per cent and the Conservatives at 41. The Liberal advantage is most pronounced among older Canadians, with 51 per cent of those aged 55 and up backing them, compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives.
With just two days to go before the vote, the Nanos polling snapshot underscores both a competitive race and a politically fragmented country heading to the polls.