With just a week remaining before Canadians head to the polls, the latest Nanos Research tracking poll shows the Liberal Party with a strong 8-point national lead over the Conservatives, adding momentum to Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s late-stage push for victory.
Conducted on April 17, 19, and 20, the three-day rolling average has the Liberals at 44% and the Conservatives at 36%. The NDP trails at 11%, while the Bloc Québécois sits at 6%, Greens at 3%, and People’s Party at 1%.
Regionally, the Liberals are leading in most parts of the country:
- Ontario: Liberals hold a commanding 10-point lead at 47% vs. Conservatives at 37%.
- Quebec: Liberals lead with 42%, Bloc trails at 24%, Conservatives sit at 22%.
- British Columbia: Liberals climb to 46%, ahead of Conservatives at 35%.
- Atlantic Canada: Liberals still lead at 49%, but the Conservative share has climbed to 37%.
- The Prairies: Conservatives remain dominant at 54%, Liberals at 35%.
Nik Nanos notes the NDP has rebounded slightly, reaching 12% in Ontario and 16% in B.C., but their national numbers remain below early campaign highs.
Canadians Prefer Carney Over Poilievre by Wide Margin
When it comes to leadership preference, Carney’s personal popularity is outpacing his rivals. The poll shows:
- Mark Carney: 47% of Canadians say he’s their preferred Prime Minister
- Pierre Poilievre: 33%
- Jagmeet Singh: 6%
Carney’s blend of economic experience and centrist messaging appears to be resonating, particularly with undecided voters and centrists worried about extreme partisanship.
Women, Seniors Fuel Liberal Advantage—But Conservatives Dominate Among Younger Men
The data also reveals clear gender and age divides in party support:
- Women: 50% support Liberals, 27% Conservatives, 13% NDP
- Men: 45% back Conservatives, 38% Liberals, 8% NDP
By age group:
- Under 35: Conservatives lead at 43%, Liberals at 37%, NDP at 11%
- Age 35-54: Conservatives also ahead at 43%, Liberals at 37%
- Age 55+: Liberals lead strongly at 52%, Conservatives at 32%
With just six days to go until election day, the Liberals are betting on their strong ground game and Carney’s commanding debate performances to seal the deal. But with Conservative support entrenched in the Prairies and among younger male voters, and with turnout always a wild card, both parties are bracing for a final sprint that could still shift the outcome.